Long-time readers of The Cincinnati Beacon will know that I have been concerned for some time that there may a U.S. or Israeli strike against Iran. There are three items which I want to mention that strike me as curious, maybe even worrisome.  None or even all of them together necessarily mean an attack is imminent, but they are noteworthy.

First, the U.S. Senate today (October 1) So much for pulling our troops out anytime soon.  What is noteworthy is the extreme lopsidedness of the vote.

Second, a website that is strongly pro-Israeli (http://www.debka.com) bases an article on an Iranian underground paper report that the Russians building the Iranian nuclear reactor at Bushehr suddenly left a few days ago. There has been no confirmation from other sources, but the website has given it top billing.  They wonder if the Russians were tipped off to leave before an attack.

Third, and this originates wholly with me, but considering the record high price of crude oil, isn’t the price of gasoline oddly low?  Here’s what I mean: the price of crude is a little above $80 per barrel and one barrel is 42 gallons.  That means that each gallon of crude costs about $1.90 per gallon.  Add to that the Ohio (28 cents) and federal taxes (18.4 cents) and one comes up with $2.34 per gallon.  And that does not include the price of refining the crude, nor the fact that only about half the crude can be refined into gasoline (the rest goes into other products), nor the cost of the station, nor the cost of getting the gasoline from the refinery to the station.  Yet it sells for $2.59 for a gallon of regular.  That’s not much margin.

Although I may be the only one who is worrying that the price of gasoline is TOO low, I am not the only one who has noted the fact that the price of crude oil is going up while the price of gasoline is going down.  See this article in the Tulsa World. They know something about oil down there.  There are two charts in the upper left-hand corner which show the price trends of gasoline and of crude.

I don’t know how these all tie together.  The Senate vote could be interpreted as a signal to Bush that the Democrats support him.  The Russians leaving Bushehr could mean an impending attack but is such a tenuous report that it may be completely wrong.  The low gasoline price may be poorly understood market forces or it could mean that the market is being artificially manipulated to help the economy ride out a possible backlash following an attack.

I find these items curious.  My concerns may just be due to diplomatic rhetoric from government officials and may be completely unfounded.  But if a surprise attack were to be launched, there certainly would not be an official press release until after the fact.

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