Photo courtesy of here.

Mayor Mark Mallory declared at a press conference Monday that the city’s population is 46,007 more than what the U.S. Census Bureau estimates, or 378,259.  In addition, the city’s average household income is said to be $54,083, not the $43,992 reported by the 2000 Census.  The claim is based on a study financed by several banks (Fifth Third, USBank, KeyBank, Huntington Bank, PNC Bank), the United Way of Greater Cincinnati, Duke Energy, First American Real Estate Information Services, SAS Insititue, ESRI, and the City of Cincinnati.  This analysis is based on 27 different sources of information but not, however, the declining enrollment at public schools.

The 2000 Census counted 330,662 people in Cincinnati, which continues a decline since 1960 when the population was 502,550.  For 2005 the Census Bureau initially estimated the population to be 308,728, a number which was later challenged by the City of Cincinnati.  The difference between that number and the new study is 69,531, or more than a fifth of the 2000 population count.

The estimate for 2005 was challenged based on a claimed decrease in vacant housing, large increase in new housing, and no major decrease in existing housing stock.  The estimate was revised based on information provided by the city.

Besides raw population and income figures, the analysis presents a much more optimistic view of the city than the 2000 Census or conventional wisdom.  For instance, 72% of residential buildings are owner occupied, compared to the 2000 Census finding of 39%.  Part of the difference appears to be due to methodology—the new study counts a building as owner-occupied if the tax bill goes to the building address.

The claimed increase in population appears to be at variance with the decline in enrollment in public schools.  For the 2000/2001 school year the enrollment in Cincinnati Public Schools was 42,514.  For the 2006/2007 school year it was just 34,099.  Most of the decrease was absorbed by charter schools, which according to data from CPS saw their numbers climb from 332 to 5,208.  But this is still an 8% decline from the 2000/2001 school year.  (The number enrolled in private and parochial schools is unknown, but is not thought to have greatly increased.) This decrease is consistent with the earlier estimate by the U.S. Census Bureau for the city’s population in 2005; an estimate that is no longer used.

When asked about this at the press conference, John Talmage, who helped do the study, stated that the 2000 Census could have also undercounted the population by a large amount.  If so, this present study does not answer the question as to whether the city’s population is increasing or decreasing, let alone by how much.

More information as to the study can be found at the City of Cincinnati website.

Boom, bust, or someplace in-between.  Cincinnati will probably have to wait until the next census to be certain.

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